Rift in the Rift

Rift Valley is arguably Kenya’s most politically-explosive region. It has had its share of powerful personalities including the larger-than-life former President Daniel Toroitich arap Moi. Most power-brokers of yesteryears are either dead or virtually extinguished from active politics. Today the region’s politics is dominated by young, vibrant and highly-intelligent politicians whose influence is growing by day.

In a solidarity last witnessed during Moi’s heydays as the de facto Kenyan leader, the young politicians campaigned for ODM and its Presidential candidate Raila Odinga and delivered almost the entire 2 million-plus Rift Valley vote as a bloc.

Less than four months down the line, however, that unity is on a melting down. The expansive province stands divided into three factions. One faction is allied to Agriculture minister and Eldoret MP William Ruto and his Industrialization counterpart and Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey, the second is largely composed of South Rift Valley MPs who claim to have been sidelined during the naming of the Grand Coalition Cabinet. The third axis revolves around Central Rift MPs allied to President Kibaki mainly from Nakuru and Laikipa districts where majority of Kikuyu Diaspora resides. The two districts are also home to majority of IDPs and are known for sporadic clashes pitting members of the Kikuyu community against their Samburu counterparts.

The region is equally divided over the potentially explosive IDP resettlement agenda that was the subject of a meeting convened by President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga at KICC on Tuesday, April 23, 2008.

While the Nakuru-Laikipia camp, led by Water and Irrigation Assistant minister Mwangi Kiunjuri wants an “immediate and unconditional” resettlement of the IDPs, their south Rift counterparts are against any sort of resettlement until some “conditions” are met and serious historical matters addressed via the yet-to-be established Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC). The establishment of TJRC could be a bitter pill for ODM’s Rift Valley MPs. Tough-talking Justice minister Martha Karua and a staunch supporter of President Kibaki on Tuesday, 22 publicly stated that perpetrators of post-election violence would be prosecuted.

Kiunjuri who is also the Laikipia East MP argues that the displaced Kenyans have a “constitutional right” to settle back to their previous land as the legal holders of the title deeds. The Kikuyus bought the chunks of land in dispute from “white settlers” who disposed the land upon Kenya’s attainment of independence on a “willing-seller-willing-buyer” basis. But they only bought the title deed and not the land (soil), goes the argument by traditional Kalenjin elders.

It is imperative to note that Ruto, Kosgey and Kones, all in the new cabinet are behind Kibaki and Raila on how members of the new cabinet were picked. They were equally in tandem with their respective party leaders that the IDPs be resettled immediately even when the matter was put to a vote at the KICC meeting.

The South Rift camp is mainly made up of MPs from the Kipsigis sub-tribe of the larger Kalenjin tribe. Franklin Bett is a former Private Secretary/Comptroller of State House and many had expected him to get a slot in the new Cabinet. However, his alleged link to the planning and funding of the Rift Valley violence could have prompted President Kibaki and Raila to sideline him in the new line up. His Chepalungu counterpart, Isaac Ruto (former Minister for Vocational Training) could be finding it hard to come to terms with how he missed on the new cabinet line up in spite of his solid backing of ODM and his firm standing at the Bomas Constitutional Conference when the Kibaki ministers decided to mutilate the Draft Constitution that had the support of the majority Delegates/Kenyans.

Analysts, however, see the marginalization of the South Rift as a silently but well-calculated scheme by (William) Ruto to surround himself with North Rift MPs with a view to maintain grip of the region’s politics. Others say the plot could prove counter-productive if Roads minister Kipkalya Kones were to fall out with (William) Ruto as this would elevate him (Kones) as the de facto leader of the South Rift, effectively creating a parallel power-center corresponding in influence to Ruto’s.

On his part Raila, known for skillful political tactics in mending with rivals, is said to have mandated ODM’s top brass to convene a meeting whose agenda is to quell a simmering split within the party. It is interesting to remember that a similar meeting ahead of the December poll salvaged ODM at a time when a party split looked almost certain following a chaotic primary that saw several winners denied nomination certificates in favor of Raila’s preferred aspirants who had openly lost to newcomers. Raila prevailed on losers by promising them jobs in “my new Government” with the assumption that he would win the Presidency. He failed in his journey to State House.

Many had thus expected him to use the chance provided by the Grand Coalition to secure jobs for his allies. This could have been the reason why Raila came under intense pressure from ODM members to push Kibaki to cede to tough demands based on a 50-50 basis on the sharing of all Government positions including the Civil Service, Provincial Administration, Ambassadors/High Commissioners and heads of Parastatals/State Corporations. To date, Kibaki maintains the Civil Service is above party politics.

Even so, most of the serving PSs as announced on Monday are Kibaki allies who have had a long-stint in the Civil Service or Institutions of Higher learning – Francis Muthaura (past retirement age), Crispus Kiamba (former University of Nairobi Vice-Chancellor), Joseph Kinyua (Treasury and past retirement), Thuita Mwangi (Internal Security) , Karega Mutahi (Education and past retirement), Patrick Nyoike (Energy and past retirement), and Ms Beatrice Naliaka Wasike, (Labour and an ardent PNU supporter who was dropped from being nominated to Parliament in preference for former Local Government minister Musikari Kombo who lost his Webuye seat).

Grumbling from the powerful grouping of Rift Valley MPs over the new list of PSs is also a matter that could prove explosive. Isaac Ruto claims that most of Kalenjin technocrats were dropped and replaced by technocrats from other communities.

Kibaki and Raila have decided to go against the wishes of South Rift leaders to postpone their tour of the region will on Thursday, 24, be visiting IDP camps to familiarize themselves with the real situation facing the refugees.

The step the two would take after the tour will greatly shape the politics surrounding the new Coalition Government. Infighting within the Grand Coalition is expected to go a notch-higher once Kibaki releases a new line up of Ambassadors/High Commissioners.

Ends…