Post-election fiasco

Kenya’s 2007 general election will go down into the annals of history as the most competitive as well as the most controversial ever. Never in the past has an election been so close to call. Kenyans, young and old, came out in large numbers to express their wish with optimism that their long-awaited aspirations would soon become a reality. But all that is now over-shadowed by the chaos that erupted soon after the announcement of the Presidential results by Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK), giving President Mwai Kibaki a second five-year term in office.

From Mombasa in Coast Province to Malava in Western, Kenya is on fire. Thousands of Kenyans are now refugees in their own country after they were flushed out of their own land, apparently, for having voted for the “wrong side” (the incumbent). In the end, Kenyans have reaped the fruits of what they sowed - ethnicity whose end results is death and more deaths.

Ethnic Rivalry

The on-going well-calculated massacres mostly rocked Nairobi, Nyanza and Rift Valley regions, prompting the question why? The main protagonists have been the Kikuyu, Luo and Kalenjins and in some instances Kisiis. Why three region and three communities?

Raila Odinga’s ODM draws its fanatical support from Luo Nyanza and North Rift, the heartland of the latest skirmishes that started as soon as Kibaki was declared the winner and minutes later went on to be sworn-in for his second and final term. Kibaki’s PNU has Central Province and Upper Eastern as its stronghold.

There has been a long-time perception that Kikuyus “took away” land formally owned by the Kalenjins in Rift Valley although the fact of the matter is that the occupants bought the land and are indeed legitimate title deed holders. Rift Valley is severally referred to as the “Kikuyu” Diaspora as many of them being natural farmers and businesspersons gradually acquired chunks of land in the region through state-owned Agricultural Development Corporation (ADC). But the ethnic rivalry first came into the limelight during the Moi regime when the retired President used ethnicity to consolidate power. Through his lieutenants, Moi staged the infamous 1992/97 ethnic cleansing that displaced thousands of Kikuyus – who by then were diehard opposition supporters - and in the end denied them a chance to vote, tilting the ballot in his favor. Apart from Kikuyus, Kisiis, likewise an agricultural community, is the only other community to have been tempted by the fertile soil of Rift Valley. They too, have not escaped the blunt of ethnic animosity that have raged across the vast region. They have been targets of rug-tug militiamen operating in Kuresoi and Molo, Buret and Bomet constituencies.

For the Luos, their rivalry with Kikuyus is historical. It started soon after independence following the fallout between President Kenyatta and his VP Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Raila’s father. The acrimonious parting took place in Kisumu when Kenyatta went to open the Kisumu Provincial Hospital popularly known as “Russia” as Jaramogi used his USSR connection to raise funds for its construction. The Luos heckled the then bigger-than-life Kenyatta who responded by ordering the army and the dreaded General Service Unit (GSU) to action, prompting the death of many Luos. A perception has grown that though Jaramogi assisted Kenyatta to become Kenya’s first President, the former rewarded him by sidelining him and his community. Jaramogi had been implored by British colonialist to form a Government but back-off “until Kenyatta was released from prison”. In essence he stepped aside for Kenyatta.

Moi followed Kenyatta’s steps by putting him under home arrest after the infamous 1982 attempted coup in which Raila was detained as the ring leader. Raila and Moi were later to join hands after the 1997 election which culminated by the latter dissolving his National Development Party (NDP) to take a ministerial position in Moi’s government on promise he would be his obvious successor but eventually, Moi opted for Uhuru Kenyatta, a political nonentity by then. Raila, a shrewd politician as he is, teamed up with Kibaki (a Kikuyu) on agreement that he would be a one-term President and in-between he would appoint him Prime Minister. Kibaki never lived to those promises. Raila turned into a fierce critic of Kibaki, in spite of being a Cabinet minister, seriously putting the relations between the two communities – Luos and Kikuyus – at all time low.

Stand-off

What Kenyans treasure most is “peace and economic stability”. Putting a meal on table, seeing their children going to school and a decent roof top is dear to any Kenyan. However, the current political impasse is almost robbing them that treasure and is indeed threatening to tear apart the nation.

Kibaki is ECK winner of the 2007 election while Raila is “people’s choice”. But what is the way forward for Kenya?

First, Kibaki has taken the oath of office and is thus, legally, the President of the Republic of Kenya and all others are constitutionally bound to accept that verdict unless it is overturned by a court of law. Raila must therefore negotiate with Kibaki to break the stalemate; otherwise the country will continue bleeding. By law, Kibaki is his senior.

I am of the opinion that a workable solution still stands to save Kenya from the bad image it has ‘purchased’ in recent weeks. The two leaders must accept that Kenya is bigger than their political ambitions.

A coalition government in with Raila as VP could be an option. However, the ODM de facto leader has rejected this offer. In the event of such an arrangement, Kalonzo’s ODM-K would automatically assume the position of the leader of the official opposition in parliament.

Another option would be to convene parliament with one agenda in mind, constitutional amendment. Such an amendment should border along the Executive. May be, MPs should toy with the idea of having an executive President (with limited powers) and two Deputy President (not Vice-President) with clearly defined duties. Also, legislators should introduce the post of a non-executive Prime Minister with two Deputies, again, with clearly defined duties. A clarification should be made as to whether the PM and his Deputies should be answerable to the President or Parliament. The new law should, likewise, stipulate who between MPs and the President should be the appointing as well as the firing authority. Other issues that Raila would take to the negotiation table are the control of parliamentary calendar, which legislators have unsuccessfully sought to wrestle from the President and a permanent date for the General Election.

A third option would only be viable if the two leaders fail to break the stalemate. This brings in the possibility of a coalition between Kibaki and ODM-K’s Kalonzo Musyoka with the latter as the VP. By entering into such an arrangement, the two would be bracing for a battle of a lifetime on the floor of parliament where Raila’s ODM commands a slim majority. It is imperative to note that ODM prides itself some of the most gifted and educated politicians in the likes of Lawyer James Orengo (Ugenya MP), Prof. Peter Anyang’ Nyong’o (Kisumu Rural), Otieno Kajwang’ (Mbita) and William Ruto (Eldoret North). The Government would find it quite tricky in passing key bills in parliament.

Another option would for Kibaki to step down and call a fresh election. But legal technicalities still stand on the way as to whether it is possible to call a Presidential poll without necessarily dissolving parliament, saving the MPs-elect the burden of going it all over again to seek fresh mandate. Constitutionally, the two should be conducted together. Kibaki’s men would in no way agree to follow this route as a re-run would record a low voter turn-out.

It is imperative to note that time is running out for Raila Presidency and the game plan for 2012 politics could be totally different from 2007. Raila might not be the favorite candidate and Central Kenya could push for a non-Kikuyu for Presidency to brush aside the notion that they cannot support anyone apart from one of their own as a strategy for 2017. I foresee a Kalonzo-Uhuru Presidency quite feasible not very far in the future. The two have a soft spot for each other and attract support from across the country and are untainted by corruption.

Ends…