CRISIS: Great Lakes Region on Fire
The Great Lakes and the Horn of Africa regions have over the decades been synonymous to civil conflicts, poverty, hunger, disease and dictatorial regimes. From Mogadishu to Kinshasa, lawlessness prompted by bad Governance and greed for power by political leaders have served to isolate the region from the community of nations and cast its population to a bottomless pit of abject poverty. Rivalry for resources and struggle for power have often been the major points of conflicts.
The Great Lakes region covers the area around Lake Victoria, Tanganyika (Tanzania), Lake Kivu (DRC), Lake Malawi, Lake Turkana (Kenya), Lake Edward and Lake Albert (both in Uganda/DRC border). It comprises of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Burundi, Rwanda, and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The Horn of Africa, on the other hand, comprises of Somalia, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and Ethiopia.
This grim picture was reversed few years ago when several peace conferences were initiated with a view to end these regional conflicts. The quest for regional peace and security is challenging taking into account the imperative need to address the root causes of these perennial conflicts. Memorable among them include, Peace Processes for Sudan, Somalia, Burundi and DRC. The January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) for Sudan formally ended war - Africa's longest civil conflict - between the Khartoum Government and the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). The DRC process ended a decade-long conflict that saw an estimated 5.3 million people die since war broke out in 1998. The Arusha Accord for Burundi ended a civil conflict that could be traced way back to 1950’s just before the tiny African nation got independence from Belgium. The Somali peace conference in Nairobi brought to an end over a decade of statelessness since the fall of Marxist dictator Siad Barre in early 1990.
But just a few years after, the blunt of civil war seem headed for a comeback. The return of the infamous wars could set the entire region on fire, threatening the lives of millions of people. An elaborate network of armament industry is still intact backed by international arms merchants with direct or indirect support from Governments that use or support arms trade, which have been critical in fueling conflict within the region.
In Somalia, a failed state for close two decades is struggling to establish a national Government. Known to be a fertile ground for international terrorists, the fledgling transitional Government is fighting daily attacks from radical Islamic insurgents. Somali’s top Islamic leaders are in Asmara, Eritrea from where they have been mobilizing military and financial support to frustrate and if possible overthrow the TFG. The Islamists want to establish a Taliban-like administration which could pose a great threat to regional peace. The Islamists have teamed up with Eritrea to declare a jihad against Addis Ababa. They have likewise threatened to strike foreign embassies based in Kenya, top among them being US and Britain.
The CPA for Sudan is almost in its final stages of death as a result of mistrust between Southern leaders and their counterparts in the North. Southern Sudan leaders have declared intention to take up arms against Khartoum in response to what they see as President Omar Bashir’s unwillingness to implement the CPA. The vast nation is also struggling to contain a full scale conflict in Darfur Region which has been termed by the UN as a “slow genocide” in the making with the full support by Bashir administration.
Kenya has been a close associate of Southern Sudan administration since the dark days of civil war and thus would almost obviously stand with the Southern leaders in the event of a fall out with Khartoum. This would trigger a diplomatic row pitting Nairobi against Khartoum.
A contigent of Rwandan troops leaving the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) town of Kindu. Rwanda has been accused of sponsoring Tutsi militants in DRC.
Uganda and Rwanda's interest
Matters are no better in DRC as the fate of the fragile peace treaty hangs in the balance. Pockets of influential militia groups in the East still pose a big threat to the national Government in Kinshasa. But the crisis is more complicated by the fact that Kampala and Kigali have a strong influence in internal issues about DRC. President Paul Kagame, a Tutsi by tribe, has been giving military support to reneged General Laurent Nkunda, a Tutsi, with a view to contain rebel Hutu militias operating inside DRC. Hutu extremists were responsible for the infamous 1994 Rwanda genocide that left over 1 million Tutsis and moderate Hutus dead.
President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda is keen on Eastern DRC as rebel Lords Resistance Army (LRA) has bases inside the dense Congo forest. They have waged a two decades war against his Government with a view to overthrow it and replace it with a theocratic one based on the Ten Commandments.
Museveni is not new to meddling into the affairs of his immediate neighbors. Early in 1990’s he crafted Rwandan exiles into his national army in preparation for an overthrow of then President Juvenile Habyarimana. Led by Kagame (now Rwandan President) Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) rebels waged guerilla warfare from inside Uganda until they overrun Kigali with the direct help of Museveni’s army following the 1994 genocide that marked the end of a long period of political and military dominance by Hutu ethnic group. The genocide took place after a plane carrying President Habyarimana (Rwanda) and President Cyprien Ntaryamira (Burundi) was shot down over Kigali airport as the two were coming from attending a regional meeting in Tanzania.
In 1995, diplomatic relations between Sudan and Uganda went to the lowest after Museveni cut-off diplomatic link with Bashir in protest at Khartoum's support for the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), a rebel group active in northern Uganda. By then Sudan alleged that Uganda was providing support to the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) who were fighting to secede from the larger Sudan. In fact, word has it that the late SPLA leader Dr John Garang’s death was a conspiracy by Kampala authorities who felt that might be difficult to deal with in negotiating on the military offensive against LRA militia who were by then operating deep inside Southern Sudan.
Refugees/IDP and Implications
According to UN reports, the region has over 5 million displaced persons living in makeshift settlements and refugee’s camp. The continued influx of displaced persons continues to impact negatively to host states. In Kenya for instance, the Somali community is blamed for the proliferation of arms and general insecurity. The community is said to ferry illegal arms from their war-ravaged country as they enter the Kenyan border. The arms are then illegally sold and transported to Nairobi through a well coordinated racket that is alleged to involve top police officers.
Fear of the unknown has equally griped regional entrepreneurs, leading many foreign investors to shy away from local market. In Southern Sudan, word has been spreading that the SPLA/M could return to the bush following a fallout with the Khartoum Government. This has brought matters to a standstill as businessmen contemplate on the next move.
In DRC, the Eastern part of the vast nation remains a no-go zone for investors as rival militia jostle for supremacy. Thousands of people have been reported to have fled their homes a week ago in the wake of renewed clashes between Nkunda’s militia and a combined force of UN peacekeepers and DRC national army.
Despite a functioning Government, Somalia remains a pariah state. The Ethiopia-Eritrea stand off over Somalia has heightened speculation that the two nations could go to another round of war in a decade. Though the earlier war was over a border dispute, the impending war could be over foreign policy towards Somalia.
Renewed conflict in Bujumbura is casting a shadow of doubt on the future of the Burundi’s Arusha Peace Agreement. Infighting within the country’s last rebel group, Front for National Liberation (FNL) has prompted locals to flee their homes fearing that the curse of civil war could be back.
Burundi and Rwanda were recently admitted to the EAC. But critics say the two would add nothing of value to the economy of the other already established states. Pointing at their past record of instability, they say, the tiny nations would only serve to extend the insecurity in their countries to other members stable states. However, the argument stand challenged on the ground that Uganda has had warm relations with its neighbors, Kenyan and Tanzania, despite the war in the North.
Ends…
The Great Lakes region covers the area around Lake Victoria, Tanganyika (Tanzania), Lake Kivu (DRC), Lake Malawi, Lake Turkana (Kenya), Lake Edward and Lake Albert (both in Uganda/DRC border). It comprises of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Burundi, Rwanda, and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The Horn of Africa, on the other hand, comprises of Somalia, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and Ethiopia.
This grim picture was reversed few years ago when several peace conferences were initiated with a view to end these regional conflicts. The quest for regional peace and security is challenging taking into account the imperative need to address the root causes of these perennial conflicts. Memorable among them include, Peace Processes for Sudan, Somalia, Burundi and DRC. The January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) for Sudan formally ended war - Africa's longest civil conflict - between the Khartoum Government and the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). The DRC process ended a decade-long conflict that saw an estimated 5.3 million people die since war broke out in 1998. The Arusha Accord for Burundi ended a civil conflict that could be traced way back to 1950’s just before the tiny African nation got independence from Belgium. The Somali peace conference in Nairobi brought to an end over a decade of statelessness since the fall of Marxist dictator Siad Barre in early 1990.
But just a few years after, the blunt of civil war seem headed for a comeback. The return of the infamous wars could set the entire region on fire, threatening the lives of millions of people. An elaborate network of armament industry is still intact backed by international arms merchants with direct or indirect support from Governments that use or support arms trade, which have been critical in fueling conflict within the region.
In Somalia, a failed state for close two decades is struggling to establish a national Government. Known to be a fertile ground for international terrorists, the fledgling transitional Government is fighting daily attacks from radical Islamic insurgents. Somali’s top Islamic leaders are in Asmara, Eritrea from where they have been mobilizing military and financial support to frustrate and if possible overthrow the TFG. The Islamists want to establish a Taliban-like administration which could pose a great threat to regional peace. The Islamists have teamed up with Eritrea to declare a jihad against Addis Ababa. They have likewise threatened to strike foreign embassies based in Kenya, top among them being US and Britain.
The CPA for Sudan is almost in its final stages of death as a result of mistrust between Southern leaders and their counterparts in the North. Southern Sudan leaders have declared intention to take up arms against Khartoum in response to what they see as President Omar Bashir’s unwillingness to implement the CPA. The vast nation is also struggling to contain a full scale conflict in Darfur Region which has been termed by the UN as a “slow genocide” in the making with the full support by Bashir administration.
Kenya has been a close associate of Southern Sudan administration since the dark days of civil war and thus would almost obviously stand with the Southern leaders in the event of a fall out with Khartoum. This would trigger a diplomatic row pitting Nairobi against Khartoum.
A contigent of Rwandan troops leaving the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) town of Kindu. Rwanda has been accused of sponsoring Tutsi militants in DRC.
Uganda and Rwanda's interest
Matters are no better in DRC as the fate of the fragile peace treaty hangs in the balance. Pockets of influential militia groups in the East still pose a big threat to the national Government in Kinshasa. But the crisis is more complicated by the fact that Kampala and Kigali have a strong influence in internal issues about DRC. President Paul Kagame, a Tutsi by tribe, has been giving military support to reneged General Laurent Nkunda, a Tutsi, with a view to contain rebel Hutu militias operating inside DRC. Hutu extremists were responsible for the infamous 1994 Rwanda genocide that left over 1 million Tutsis and moderate Hutus dead.
President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda is keen on Eastern DRC as rebel Lords Resistance Army (LRA) has bases inside the dense Congo forest. They have waged a two decades war against his Government with a view to overthrow it and replace it with a theocratic one based on the Ten Commandments.
Museveni is not new to meddling into the affairs of his immediate neighbors. Early in 1990’s he crafted Rwandan exiles into his national army in preparation for an overthrow of then President Juvenile Habyarimana. Led by Kagame (now Rwandan President) Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) rebels waged guerilla warfare from inside Uganda until they overrun Kigali with the direct help of Museveni’s army following the 1994 genocide that marked the end of a long period of political and military dominance by Hutu ethnic group. The genocide took place after a plane carrying President Habyarimana (Rwanda) and President Cyprien Ntaryamira (Burundi) was shot down over Kigali airport as the two were coming from attending a regional meeting in Tanzania.
In 1995, diplomatic relations between Sudan and Uganda went to the lowest after Museveni cut-off diplomatic link with Bashir in protest at Khartoum's support for the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), a rebel group active in northern Uganda. By then Sudan alleged that Uganda was providing support to the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) who were fighting to secede from the larger Sudan. In fact, word has it that the late SPLA leader Dr John Garang’s death was a conspiracy by Kampala authorities who felt that might be difficult to deal with in negotiating on the military offensive against LRA militia who were by then operating deep inside Southern Sudan.
Refugees/IDP and Implications
According to UN reports, the region has over 5 million displaced persons living in makeshift settlements and refugee’s camp. The continued influx of displaced persons continues to impact negatively to host states. In Kenya for instance, the Somali community is blamed for the proliferation of arms and general insecurity. The community is said to ferry illegal arms from their war-ravaged country as they enter the Kenyan border. The arms are then illegally sold and transported to Nairobi through a well coordinated racket that is alleged to involve top police officers.
Fear of the unknown has equally griped regional entrepreneurs, leading many foreign investors to shy away from local market. In Southern Sudan, word has been spreading that the SPLA/M could return to the bush following a fallout with the Khartoum Government. This has brought matters to a standstill as businessmen contemplate on the next move.
In DRC, the Eastern part of the vast nation remains a no-go zone for investors as rival militia jostle for supremacy. Thousands of people have been reported to have fled their homes a week ago in the wake of renewed clashes between Nkunda’s militia and a combined force of UN peacekeepers and DRC national army.
Despite a functioning Government, Somalia remains a pariah state. The Ethiopia-Eritrea stand off over Somalia has heightened speculation that the two nations could go to another round of war in a decade. Though the earlier war was over a border dispute, the impending war could be over foreign policy towards Somalia.
Renewed conflict in Bujumbura is casting a shadow of doubt on the future of the Burundi’s Arusha Peace Agreement. Infighting within the country’s last rebel group, Front for National Liberation (FNL) has prompted locals to flee their homes fearing that the curse of civil war could be back.
Burundi and Rwanda were recently admitted to the EAC. But critics say the two would add nothing of value to the economy of the other already established states. Pointing at their past record of instability, they say, the tiny nations would only serve to extend the insecurity in their countries to other members stable states. However, the argument stand challenged on the ground that Uganda has had warm relations with its neighbors, Kenyan and Tanzania, despite the war in the North.
Ends…
posted by Mahathir | 1:23 pm
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