Somalia Crisis

The fall of Union of Islamic Courts-led administration in Southern Somalia was as sudden as its rise. UIC was little-known at the international level until it run-over a US-backed anti-terrorism alliance led by warlords in the bullet-scarred capital Mogadishu. Within weeks, the courts leadership went on an expansionist mission whereby it spread its wings of dominance to the entire Somalia and started to install Islamic administration/courts in every trading center on site.

The swift rise of the Islamists prompted Ethiopia’s PM Meles Zenawi to send a contingent of heavily armed military into the Somali soil to protect his “baby”, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) then based in the provisional seat of government in the town of Baidoa.

Many observers had predicted that the UIC militia would engage the Addis Ababa army into a bloody-way that would last for months and some had even predicted that it would run-over the Ethiopian-backed TFG. However, as it turned out, UIC militia were too weak to face the military might of Ethiopia, reputed to have the strongest force in the horn of Africa and one of the largest in the continent. It is now official: Mogadishu has fallen, from the hands of ‘terrorists’ to the “safety” of elected “democrats”.

But what does this signify? What is the most probable outcome?

Scenario one

The TFG administration of President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed would for the first time exert full authority over the official capital Mogadishu whose leadership has been changing hands ever since Marxist dictator Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991. However, in doing so it has to overcome some serious challenges. The warlords, most of who now serve in the TFG, are back to the same city they controlled, albeit with personal interests at hand, for nearly two decades.

The first to return just a day following the fall of Mogadishu was the influential Hussen Aideed who by then was on a Holiday in Nairobi, Kenya. Before returning he intimated to me of his desire to get back “my resources” which have been heavily interfered with by Islamists. One of his treasured “resources” is the famous and prestigious Presidential Palace popularly known as Villa Somalia and the strategic port of Mogadishu.

On Tuesday, he held a day-long closed-door parley with leaders of his Hawiye clan that is predominant in the capital and constitutes 30 per cent of the entire national population.

The disposed warlords may use their clan and sub-clans to create divisions that would eventually spill-over into a full-blown conflict to complicate matters for the TFG in its bid to consolidate its authority in the new home (Mogadishu).

Most experts privy the Somali affairs’ now want the TFG to enter into serious dialogue with all clan leaders and effectively articulate their intentions and national policy at large with a view to elbow the warlords who most probably would want to spoil the party for their common rival to the throne – President Yusuf.

Yusuf hails from the Darod clan, the historical rival to the Hawiye, which was the predominant clan throughout the Barre regime. Yusuf opposed Barre (Darod Clan) on the fact that his Majeerteen sub-clan was sidelined by President Barre’s Marehan sub-clan.

Prof. Ghedi (Abgaal sub-clan) and his Deputy Aideed (Habar Gedir sub-clan) are from the Larger Hawiye Clan and both are natives of Mogadishu. Hawiyes have never forgiven the Darods for the suffering they underwent, particularly when Barre (Darod) was the Head of State. Many, indeed, want the young Aideed to be President. Actually, nearly all warlords and disposed leaders of Islamic Courts in Somalia hail from the Hawiye clan but from different sub-clans. When Mohammed Farah Aideed (Hussen’s) father took over as the President of Somali in 1994, the first uprising towards his regime was from the Abgaal sub-clan led by the late Ali Mahdi Mohammed.

Another feared and extremely wealthy warlord Mohamed Qanyareh Afrah (Abgaal) has also returned in Mogadishu and was reported by a local radio saying he would regroup his 2,000-strong militia to take back his territory - the Mogadishu International Airport.

Warlord Osman Ali Atto, Aideed’s key ally from his Habar Gedir sub-clan could be returning soon to his native capital from which he was the key player in slaughtering UN and US peacekeepers in 1993.

Scenario two

Somalia is now, for the first time in history, under Ethiopian occupation – what every Somalia never thought it would one day be a reality. Even the slightest perception that Addis Ababa would ‘rule’ their homeland, directly or indirectly, will stir-up acrimony among ordinary Somalis. In part such a remote perception would make the TFG unpopular on the ground as many will look at it as a “the enemy within”, a situation that could complicate matters for the TFG.

Actually, an Executive order by Prime Minister Prof. Ali Mohammed Ghedi that every Mogadishu residents surrender their arms has been seriously ignored and international press in the capital say only a handful could be seen delivering their arms.

Many will be reluctant to disarm until the TFG pacifies the city, reputed to have the largest cache of illegal arms in the world. They keep arms for ‘personal security’.

Scenario three

The deposed UIC leader might opt for an Iraq-style insurgency to paralyze the TFG and dim any hope of regional countries deploying a peacekeeping force. Currently, they UIC top brass) are said to have retreated to the Mountainous region of Kismayo which is quite complex for any military. Experts say only air bombings would flush them out from their rocky hideouts. With the amount of weapons in the hands of freelance militia, this could be a real scenario.

Scenario four

With the regional countries now in the thick of things, anything could happen. The Islamists would opt to target specific areas within regional cities to divert attention. Alternatively, they would aim at United States, British and any Western Mission in any of the regional capitals as a punishment for their open support of the Ethiopian-backed TFG.

Whatever the outcome of the unfolding Somali crisis, it’s obvious that there will be an increase in illicit arms in the region and an influx of refugees mainly in Kenya and possibly Ethiopia.

Ends…