Kibaki vs. the Rest

The year 2007 will be a make or break for President Mwai Kibaki, assuming he is still contemplating of a second term in State House. As the country’s Chief Executive, his performance has been exemplary and he has shown he has what it takes to revive the economy, his life-time pet project.

Kibaki was elected on a National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) ticket. Initially he was the leader of Democratic Party (DP), then the Official Opposition in parliament.

However, Narc has undergone a metamorphosis of sorts since it dramatic ride to power after successfully dislodging Kanu Party that had ruled the country for a record 40 years.

One, all its previous partners have jumped ship to other parties or coalitions. According to the books of record, Narc boss is Health minister Charity Kaluki Ngilu who of late has been warming up to the opposition to the chagrin of Kibaki’s allies.

Attempts by Presidents men to dislodge her through grassroots elections for the last four years have never materialized, prompting them to form National Rainbow Coalition of Kenya (Narc-Kenya) allegedly to offer Kibaki, technically partyless at the moment, a safe landing.

In parliament, the President belongs to Narc and the Speaker of the National Assembly can only declare his seat vacant to pave way for a by-election after Kibaki’s party (Narc) has communicated to him (the Speaker) in writing that he has officially defected.

However, Kibaki has not yet declared on which party ticket he will vie, be it Narc, Narc-Kenya, or DP.

During this year’s by-elections in Nakuru, Kibaki openly campaigned for Narc-K candidate and son to the late Internal Security minister Mirugi Kariuki who together with 8 others perished in a helicopter crash while on duty in Marsabit, Northen Kenya. The young Mirugi went on to win the seat making Narc-Kenya a parliamentary party. The party also won two other seats in North Horr and Saku constituency.

Nearly every minister and assistant minister in Kibaki administration have openly identified with the new party whose current Chairman is the outspoken Trade and Industry minister Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi, a leading campaigner for Kibaki’s second term in office.

Orange Democratic Movement party of Kenya (ODM-Kenya) on the other hand comprises of influential politicians from across the country which makes its leaders brag that it’s the only party whose leadership reflects Kenya’s ethnic diversity – its national party, they say. It is a coalition of Kanu and LDP.

Its top brass comprises of former Cabinet ministers Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi, Najib Balala, and William ole Ntimama all of whom except Ntimama have expressed their intention to vie for Presidency.

The seven represent some of the most fertile voting regions and all of them command a sizable popularity in their respective localities.

Raila, ODM-K de facto leader commands a cult-like support from his native Luo-Nyanza. His Langata constituency in Nairobi is predominately Luo-inhabited and has close to 2 million dwellers from the sprawling Kibera slums. Nyanza has a combined 1.6 million registered electorates who traditionally vote along with Raila.

Kalonzo Musyoka is seen by many as a moderate and has won admiration from major western countries, perhaps due to his diplomatic acumen as the Foreign Affairs minister at a time when Kenya was mediating in the highly-successful Sudan and Somalia peace talks.

Local opinion polls have on several occasions shown him leading though he now lies a distant second after the incumbent, Kibaki.

If Raila abandons his presidential ambitions and takes over his kingmaker role, his support will be crucial in determining who becomes the next president. Currently, Raila seems to enjoy a strong political relationship with Ruto and Musalia Mudavadi and there is a possibility that he may opt for the two in the duel for ODM-K since both commands the support of larger tribal vote than Kalonzo alone.

But with a recent opinion poll showing that no single candidate would win the presidential race, the pressure is on Kalonzo to either announce that he will stick to the ODM-K dream or start preparing for an early departure. But can he survive outside LDP? With some of his allies having formed a political party (National Rainbow Development Party), there has been a growing feeling that the Mwingi North Mp might jump ship if his chances dwindle within LDP, where all eyes are on Raila’s presidential bid.

His support is from Ukambani backyard which has 904,000 registered voters and a section of Rift Valley where he commands support from African Inland Church (AIC) – an influential church in the two regions – in which he belongs. He is seen as Raila’s top rival for ODM-K presidential ticket.

Rift Valley province is the country’s most fertile with 2.5 million votes for a grab. Kanu’s former Secretary-General William Ruto is leading ODM-K onslaught in the North Rift from which he managed to galvanize 1.2 million voters to reject the proposed draft constitution.

However, his duel with Moi may in the long run may spell a blessing or doom to ODM-K’s youngest aspirant. At 40, he excites great enthusiasm from many young Kenyans who feel let down by the old guards.

H e has the support from sitting Mps from the area but Moi and Biwott enjoy unquestionable grassroots support. How Ruto - a man who abandoned a Masters of Science in Zoology Degree course at University of Nairobi (UoN) to join politics in 1992 - turns parliamentary support into grassroots support is a matter of time, chance and skill.

His allies argue that he may not be a serious Presidential contender but rather his go for the seat would give them bargaining power in the next government.

His counterpart, Ntimama is traditionally the undisputed Maasai kingpin. His word, punctuated by cultural oaths and declaration, is indeed law and gospel truth as well. At the heart of Maasailand are more than 400,000 votes.

Uhuru’s destiny is pegged on whether or not Kibaki will be in the race. Though he has matured over the years since retired President Daniel Moi crafted him into the mainstream politics in early 1990’s, he excites little enthusiasm among his Central Kenya folks who accuse him of teaming up with the enemy to bring down “one of our own”. The Central Kenya vote standing at 1.6 million combined with an additional 800,000 Meru-Embu votes has traditionally been Kibaki’s for the taking since his hey days in the opposition.

During the Referendum, Uhuru was the only ODM-K luminary who never delivered a “No” vote as majority of his constituents sided with the President’s “yes” camp. Whatever side of divide he stands in; Uhuru is a man in limbo. Political observers say that Uhuru, the son of Kenya’s founding father, the Charismatic Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, will have to work round the clock to retain his Gatundu South seat.

He got it on his third attempt and now faces a stiff challenge from his popular cousin Ngengi Muigai who has publicly said plans to recapture the seat come 2007.

The continued good relationship between Moi and Kibaki is Uhuru’s biggest headache. One, the man who sole-handedly catapulted him from mere obscurity into national limelight in 2002 has turned into a back-stabber! Moi has shifted loyalty to Keiyo South Mp Nicholas Biwott, Uhuru’s fiercest rival in Kanu. The former President is said to have bank-rolled a recent delegates summit in Mombasa that ousted Uhuru and team from the party’s leadership.

Actually, the destiny of any serious presidential aspirant is pegged on the steps Kibaki, Moi and Raila will take ahead of 2007 polls.

Musalia Mudavadi, a son to the late wealthy and influential Cabinet minister Moses Mudavadi never excites much enthusiasm in the public, but he still remains the most-likely son of Western Kenya to ascend to the throne.

A close ally of Raila, Mudavadi could be ODM-K’s surprise party flag-bearer with Raila as running mate or the former by reason of age (46) would leave it for Raila who is aging (62) on the premise that he would take over after him. ODM-K, on the other hand, could settle for Mudavadi as a compromise candidate to avert looming fallout between Raila and Kalonzo over the party’s Presidential ticket.

He holds ODM-K vision of bugging-in over 1.5 million Western Kenya votes. The province is vast with 24 constituencies and thus would occupy a crucial place in the political calculus of anyone wishing to occupy State House.

Western Province could easily be neatly divided into two segments: the Northern part comprising the larger Kakamega District and the Southern comprising Bungoma district and parts of Busia. Traditionally, the Southern part is dominated by Musalia’s Maragori sub-tribe, while the Bukusu are predominantly in the Northern parts.

The rivalry between the two regions has ensured, over the years that the Luhya community does not vote as a bloc, which could mean the North would stick with their son, Musikari Kombo, the beleaguered Ford-Kenya boss while the South would give a thumbs stamp to Mudavadi. In the end, ODM-K would only bug-in half of the 1.5 million votes at stake.

With the stage set for a duel, most observers see the contest for Presidency come next year as a two-horse race between newly-formed Narc-Kenya and ODM-K.

Narc-K is somehow advantaged in that it is the incumbent, in the event Kibaki runs. ODM-K on the other hand is riding on its victory at the Referendum.

The Government side is smarting from several financial scandals that have occurred during the last four years. Its onslaught on corruption seems to have hit a snag with no single individual yet to be sentenced over graft despite great outcry form the public. This could be Kibaki’s undoing.

Ends…