Rift in the Rift

Rift Valley is arguably Kenya’s most politically-explosive region. It has had its share of powerful personalities including the larger-than-life former President Daniel Toroitich arap Moi. Most power-brokers of yesteryears are either dead or virtually extinguished from active politics. Today the region’s politics is dominated by young, vibrant and highly-intelligent politicians whose influence is growing by day.

In a solidarity last witnessed during Moi’s heydays as the de facto Kenyan leader, the young politicians campaigned for ODM and its Presidential candidate Raila Odinga and delivered almost the entire 2 million-plus Rift Valley vote as a bloc.

Less than four months down the line, however, that unity is on a melting down. The expansive province stands divided into three factions. One faction is allied to Agriculture minister and Eldoret MP William Ruto and his Industrialization counterpart and Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey, the second is largely composed of South Rift Valley MPs who claim to have been sidelined during the naming of the Grand Coalition Cabinet. The third axis revolves around Central Rift MPs allied to President Kibaki mainly from Nakuru and Laikipa districts where majority of Kikuyu Diaspora resides. The two districts are also home to majority of IDPs and are known for sporadic clashes pitting members of the Kikuyu community against their Samburu counterparts.

The region is equally divided over the potentially explosive IDP resettlement agenda that was the subject of a meeting convened by President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga at KICC on Tuesday, April 23, 2008.

While the Nakuru-Laikipia camp, led by Water and Irrigation Assistant minister Mwangi Kiunjuri wants an “immediate and unconditional” resettlement of the IDPs, their south Rift counterparts are against any sort of resettlement until some “conditions” are met and serious historical matters addressed via the yet-to-be established Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC). The establishment of TJRC could be a bitter pill for ODM’s Rift Valley MPs. Tough-talking Justice minister Martha Karua and a staunch supporter of President Kibaki on Tuesday, 22 publicly stated that perpetrators of post-election violence would be prosecuted.

Kiunjuri who is also the Laikipia East MP argues that the displaced Kenyans have a “constitutional right” to settle back to their previous land as the legal holders of the title deeds. The Kikuyus bought the chunks of land in dispute from “white settlers” who disposed the land upon Kenya’s attainment of independence on a “willing-seller-willing-buyer” basis. But they only bought the title deed and not the land (soil), goes the argument by traditional Kalenjin elders.

It is imperative to note that Ruto, Kosgey and Kones, all in the new cabinet are behind Kibaki and Raila on how members of the new cabinet were picked. They were equally in tandem with their respective party leaders that the IDPs be resettled immediately even when the matter was put to a vote at the KICC meeting.

The South Rift camp is mainly made up of MPs from the Kipsigis sub-tribe of the larger Kalenjin tribe. Franklin Bett is a former Private Secretary/Comptroller of State House and many had expected him to get a slot in the new Cabinet. However, his alleged link to the planning and funding of the Rift Valley violence could have prompted President Kibaki and Raila to sideline him in the new line up. His Chepalungu counterpart, Isaac Ruto (former Minister for Vocational Training) could be finding it hard to come to terms with how he missed on the new cabinet line up in spite of his solid backing of ODM and his firm standing at the Bomas Constitutional Conference when the Kibaki ministers decided to mutilate the Draft Constitution that had the support of the majority Delegates/Kenyans.

Analysts, however, see the marginalization of the South Rift as a silently but well-calculated scheme by (William) Ruto to surround himself with North Rift MPs with a view to maintain grip of the region’s politics. Others say the plot could prove counter-productive if Roads minister Kipkalya Kones were to fall out with (William) Ruto as this would elevate him (Kones) as the de facto leader of the South Rift, effectively creating a parallel power-center corresponding in influence to Ruto’s.

On his part Raila, known for skillful political tactics in mending with rivals, is said to have mandated ODM’s top brass to convene a meeting whose agenda is to quell a simmering split within the party. It is interesting to remember that a similar meeting ahead of the December poll salvaged ODM at a time when a party split looked almost certain following a chaotic primary that saw several winners denied nomination certificates in favor of Raila’s preferred aspirants who had openly lost to newcomers. Raila prevailed on losers by promising them jobs in “my new Government” with the assumption that he would win the Presidency. He failed in his journey to State House.

Many had thus expected him to use the chance provided by the Grand Coalition to secure jobs for his allies. This could have been the reason why Raila came under intense pressure from ODM members to push Kibaki to cede to tough demands based on a 50-50 basis on the sharing of all Government positions including the Civil Service, Provincial Administration, Ambassadors/High Commissioners and heads of Parastatals/State Corporations. To date, Kibaki maintains the Civil Service is above party politics.

Even so, most of the serving PSs as announced on Monday are Kibaki allies who have had a long-stint in the Civil Service or Institutions of Higher learning – Francis Muthaura (past retirement age), Crispus Kiamba (former University of Nairobi Vice-Chancellor), Joseph Kinyua (Treasury and past retirement), Thuita Mwangi (Internal Security) , Karega Mutahi (Education and past retirement), Patrick Nyoike (Energy and past retirement), and Ms Beatrice Naliaka Wasike, (Labour and an ardent PNU supporter who was dropped from being nominated to Parliament in preference for former Local Government minister Musikari Kombo who lost his Webuye seat).

Grumbling from the powerful grouping of Rift Valley MPs over the new list of PSs is also a matter that could prove explosive. Isaac Ruto claims that most of Kalenjin technocrats were dropped and replaced by technocrats from other communities.

Kibaki and Raila have decided to go against the wishes of South Rift leaders to postpone their tour of the region will on Thursday, 24, be visiting IDP camps to familiarize themselves with the real situation facing the refugees.

The step the two would take after the tour will greatly shape the politics surrounding the new Coalition Government. Infighting within the Grand Coalition is expected to go a notch-higher once Kibaki releases a new line up of Ambassadors/High Commissioners.

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Kenya's 10th Parliament

Pressure is mounting on President Kibaki to recall Parliament in order to embark on a process that will give birth to some very crucial constitutional reforms that would, perhaps, unlock the current political impasse over the disputed Presidential election results. The push to have such reforms was recently affirmed by Speaker of the National Assembly Kenneth Marende, who is said to have told an informal closed-door session between Kenyan MPs and Koffi Annan that “the National Assembly is willing and ready to play its rightful role in finding a sustainable and lasting peace for our country”.

Parliament will be seeking to ratify – through constitutional amendments - the steps of a political agreement between the ruling Party of National Unity (PNU)/Government side and ODM, the Official Opposition in Parliament. Lawmakers will be expected to unanimously support whatever political settlements the negotiators will agree under the Annan-led initiative by quickly adopting and passing the necessary bills.

But serious handles stand in the way of the 10^th Parliament since Kenya gained independence from Britain almost half a century ago. Ethnic hatred and tension among legislators is at an all time high. Suspicion and mistrust reigns supreme among honorable members of the National Assembly.

According to a hint, given by none other but Annan, we may all have to settle for a “Grand Coalition” made up of Government and the Opposition. Two years down the line, says Annan, Kenyans should be able to heal and go for a fresh poll without tearing themselves apart. To accommodate such, as per Annan’s view, more (powerful) positions would be created to bring on board ODM’s top brass, Raila included. Such positions would consist of a Prime minister, his two or three Deputies and one more Vice-President. There are indications that the VP position could be phased out and replaced with a Deputy President with clearly defined job description. The Executive would thus constitute President and his two Deputies, Prime Minister and his three Deputies and the Cabinet.

To say the least, such radical proposals would require constitutional amendments. As per the current standing orders, any constitutional amendment has to attract the support of no less than two thirds of MP which translates into 144 members. As we stand today, neither PNU/Government nor ODM commands such a majority. What we have is a very slim majority that could be turned around any day courtesy of personal and parochial interests. The Government side (PNU and its affiliate parties) and ODM are locked in a game of numbers. Both parties have 102 members while six seats are still vacant. They are Kamukunji and Embakasi in Nairobi, Wajir West in North Eastern, Kilgoris and Ainamoi in Rift Valley. ODM lost two of its members while Emuhaya seat fell vacant following the election of Marende as the Speaker of the National Assembly. The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) ordered a repeat of parliamentary elections in the other three constituencies following clear evidence of electoral malpractices.

Unless hardliners on both sides give away concessions, Kenya could be headed for another round of a serious political stalemate, bigger and with far-reaching effects than what was experienced in January.

Time will be of great significance. Under the standing orders (Rule Book of Parliament), there are four sittings each week. Government business is conducted in Parliament on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday afternoons 2.30 pm to 6.30 pm. On Wednesday mornings, Parliament sits between 9.00 am and 12.30 pm for what is called Private Members Business to address issues brought by back benchers. Kenya Parliament, therefore, works very short weeks and ultimately years. So commitment to the (reform) cause must be highly exhibited by all MPs.

At the end of the day Parliament must decide, through necessary legislations, whether the country should adopt a parliamentary system of government, in which a Prime Minister is appointed from the majority party in Parliament and the President remains more or less ceremonial and who between the PM and the President should weird more powers. This is where the most probable stalemate will emanate from.

Another option would be to go for a hybrid system in which executive authority is shared between the President and Prime Minister in the model of the French system. PNU/Government, however, want the Tanzanian model where President is the head of state and government and has powers to appoint his PM.

The powers of Parliament should be defined as to which appointments to be vetted by the August House. With ODM still silently pushing for Kibaki exit, a key proposal would be for Parliament to have unlimited powers to control its own procedures and calendar through Standing Orders. This would enable ODM to push for a vote of no confidence motion without subjecting MPs to another poll before the lapse of the five-year term. PNU/Government is very keen on this and will vehemently object to such a proposal.

ODM want a reformed judiciary due to numerous petitions at the High Court over the just-concluded polls. Raila has on several occasions publicly expressed his lack of faith in the courts as an option to justice. Raila is of the opinion that Parliament should be given powers to vet the names of nominees to the judiciary before they are gazetted.

ODM leaders are of the opinion that the ultimate decision to commit themselves to resolutions of the National Dialogue and Reconciliation Committee headed by Annan would be made by their supporters countrywide. How they intend to do so is a matter yet to spill to the public domain. It would be a kind of a (party) referendum. Hardliners within ODM are of the opinion that all past injustices must be addressed including the last election. In other words, the outcome of the December poll must be addressed to the satisfaction of all Kenyans countrywide.

MEANWHILE, the PNU/Government side is to be opposed to a Grand Coalition with ODM. According to PNU insiders, bringing in Pentagon members and other top ODM luminaries in Government would make it hard to pursue architect of post-election violence that rocked the country a month ago. Some like Ruto, Kosgey (MP Tindrett), Ntimama (MP Narok North), and Kones (Buret) are among top on the list of politicians who the Government believes perpetrated violence and even bankrolled militia whose orgy of bloodshed cost the lives of more than 1000 Kenyans.

As a result, PNU want the mandate to decide who joins the Cabinet to remain the preserve of the President (Kibaki). This is seen by many observers as a way to create a way for Kibaki to reject overtures to appoint some top ODM leaders who the Government is keen on prosecuting owing in respect to their role in post-election violence.

These, coupled by a string of legal technicalities likely to arose, are some of the issues that Parliament would have to surmount to break the current political deadlock.

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