• CPA for Sudan – Why it may never work

It was January 9, 2005, and the Sudan conflict, Africa’s longest-running war came to an end. The guns went silence and the rebels left their hide-outs deep in the bush to take up Government positions as hundreds of thousands others started packing for a return from Diaspora.
The atmosphere was evident at the Nairobi’s Nyayo National Stadium, the venue of the signing ceremony. Ululations of peace, love and unity was all that characterized this historic day for Africa. Tears flowed freely on the faces of jubilant Sudanese both from the South and the North.
They hugged, kissed, sang and danced together waiting for the eventful hour when the two top “Generals” in the conflict – President Omar el-Bashir and Southern Sudan leader John Garang de Mabior would put pen on paper to signify the end of an era (of hatred, conflict, poverty and illiteracy).
Momentous was the day that saw America send its then most powerful personality after President George W. Bush, Secretary of State, Colin Powel himself a retired military General. Not less than 20 Heads of State and Governments attended the occasion not forgetting dozens of diplomats from around the world.

President Omar el Bashir of Sudan. He has been accused of showing laxity in implementing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) for Sudan that ended a 21 years civil war with the South. Likewise, his Government is on the spot over the continuing conflict in Darfur region where it has been sponsoring an armed militia of Arabic origin, the Janjaweed, against the black population.



However, signs of serious differences started to show right at the stadium while cheering as Bashir and Garang sat down to sign the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) documents. The Southerners, predominantly Christian chanted Halleluiah while the Northerners shouted Allah Al-kubar, a clear indication of the sharp differences of the two regions due to their religious orientation.
Two years on and the CPA could be headed for a total collapse.
Just as then, questions abound on whether Khartoum is committed to the implementation of the pact. Bashir’s administration is wary of the future consequences of the agreement because of the clause that allows the Christian South to hold a referendum to determine whether to remain in the larger Sudan or secede and form it’s won sovereign Republic.
Diversion tactics
Khartoum would be the main loser if such a scenario was to occur. The country’s richest oil fields are in the South and the Khartoum Government would do anything possible to keep them. Bashir and his allies have created a similar war in the Darfur region with a view to divert the attention of the United Nations and the International Community in evaluating the implementation of the CPA.
The Bashir regime has been accused of atrocities in the Darfur region, which is being perpetrated by Janjaweed Arab militias known to enjoy patronage from his autocratic administration. The conflict has been going on since breaking out in early 2003.
On May 5, 2006, the Sudanese government and Mini Menawi-led Sudan Liberation Army/Movement (SLA/M) – the largest rebel group in the region - signed the Darfur Peace Agreement, which aimed at ending the three-year long conflict. The agreement, which was brokered by African Union (AU), specified the disarmament of the Janjaweed and the disbandment of the rebel forces, and aimed at establishing a temporal government in which the rebels could take part. However, not all rebels signed the pact and instead regrouped under a united rebel movement, the National Redemption Front (NRF). Analysts say the NRF could be enjoying patronage from Khartoum, albeit clandestinely, to keep the war alive and accomplish its mission of keeping the world attention on Darfur and not Southern Sudan.
To further divert the attention of the International Community, Bashir regime has been funding and arming a rebel group in the neighboring Chad that started in December 2005. Khartoum supports the rebel Rally for Democracy and Liberty (RDL) militants.
President Bashir’s regime has never been known to have a soft spot for the media prompting members of the fourth estate to go ballistic against Khartoum in their reporting. The long-serving Head of State who seized power in a 1989 coup has on several occasions accused the media of biased reporting and “exaggerating” the extent of the conflicts that have gripped the vast nation. Of all international and regional media houses with bureau in Khartoum, none could be said to be neutral. This tense face-off between the political authority and the media has only served to worsen the situation rather than heal the wounds – past or present.
SPLM administration
On the other hand, the South is still struggling to feel the gap left by the late Garang. His successor and the Sudan’s Vice-President Salva Kiir, though a student of Garang, has failed to effectively bargain for allocation of national funds with a view to benefit his region which is a total contradiction of the North, in terms of development. He is too moderate, diplomatic and awfully calculative.
The South, which has a semi-autonomous administration with Kiir as President has likewise failed to engage her neighbors in order to jump-start development.
Security officers of Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) have on several occasions been engaged in conflicts with investors from Kenya and Uganda. Upon the signing of the CPA, Garang had pointed at Kenya as the “trusted” neighbor who could be engaged to rebuild the collapsed economy of the South.
All is not well in the semi-autonomous administration of Southern Sudan.
Dr. Riek Machar is the GoSS second in command in what insiders say is a mere political marriage of convenience to avert an internal crisis within the GoSS ruling elite. Machar, currently the chief-mediator in the on-going peace talks for Uganda, is not new to controversy. At one stage he broke ranks with Garang’s-SPLM/A and formed a splinter group with the sole purpose of overthrowing the “popular” Garang as the de facto leader of the South. After he failed in his first mission, he engaged Bashir and brokered a deal that handed him the Vice-Presidency to the chagrin of the Southerners. He later rejoined SPLM/A during the peace conference in Kenya and became its third in command till the death of Garang in a plane clash.
His allies within GoSS have been accused of the cause of disquiet now engulfing the Salva Kiir administration. His main ally is the Sudan’s Foreign minister Lam Akol with whom he staged the 1990’s failed coup against Garang.
Machar has been accused of using his position to appoint his kinsmen to strategic positions in the GoSS and even at one time lobbied for his private oil firm – White Nile Petroleum Company – to be granted concessions, but it was flatly rejected by the GoSS Cabinet. Other insiders say he has shown sympathetic tendencies to Khartoum after he accepted to be sworn in to the National Legislative Assembly. According to the CPA for Sudan, one is prohibited from taking an oath of office twice. Machar took a second oath when he had already been sworn in for a constitutional position in the GoSS. Machar, however, has denied all these allegations.
South-North border
The boundary separating Southern Sudan from her neighbor in the North was expected to be drawn mid this year. Indications are, however, showing that the exercise may wait till next year.
Demarcation is a contentious issue in the Sudan as it will outrightly determine who goes with the revered oil fields, all in readiness for a possible secession by the South in 2011. Khartoum, expected to lose the oil fields to the South, has been accused of delaying the release of funds to the boundary commission, allegations the unity government led by Bashir denies.
Bashir has even reneged on the CPA clause that he withdraws Sudan Armed Forces from the South by July 9, this year. Khartoum has come under harsh criticism from none other but United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon for violating the CPA.
Definitely, though guns have gone silent in the Sudan, stability – political and military - may take years to be realized.
Ends…