A look at Kalonzo candidature

ODM-K Presidential hopeful Kalonzo Musyoka

HE is a politician, lawyer, Diplomat and a staunch Christian with a bias for strong family values. Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka has a 20-years experience in active politics having started his political career in 1985 when he was first elected the Member of Parliament for Mwingi South constituency in Mwingi District. The former Cabinet minister also served in the former ruling party Kanu for 14 years as the National Organizing Secretary (1988/02). In parliament he was the Deputy Speaker (1988/92) before being appointed Assistant minister for Public Works and Housing. Later, he was to serve in the Cabinet as Education, Foreign as well as Environment minister. President Kibaki fired him from the Government together with a group of fellow ministers during a Cabinet reshuffle prompted by Government’s defeat at the national referendum on constitution where he (Kalonzo) campaigned against the Government-backed draft document. Throughout his meteoric rise to the top of Kenya’s politics, analysts say, he was being groomed to take over as the de facto leader of Kamba (tribe) politics from then powerful but aging-cum-illiterate Mulu Mutisya.

But what is causing ripples across Kenyan politics in his recent launch of his presidential bid in which a mammoth crowd turned out at Nairobi’s Uhuru Park grounds. Five years ago, few people would have imagined Kalonzo gunning for Presidency. Initially he was known as a conformist politician with in-born docile tendencies.

But his true self started to show in 2002 when he defied his political mentor and then President Daniel Moi and joined the opposition in opposing Moi’s choice to handpick Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor. He and other renegade Kanu leaders campaigned for Kibaki who went on to win the General Election with a landslide.

A similar trait of a leader who could stand on his own feet showed when he engaged ally-turned-foe Raila Odinga in a fierce tug of supremacy over the control of Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya (ODM-K). In the end, Raila left the party and took over then little known Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) from Nairobi lawyer Mugambi Imanyara (at a fee).

Voting pattern
With the launch of his campaign on Sunday, Kalonzo has triggered a new wave across the country. Opinion polls have shown him at 8 per cent far behind Raila (52 per cent) and Kibaki (38 per cent). Even with the new Kalonzo wave, don’t expect him to win the election. However, he will bag-in a sizeable number of MPs, enough to negotiate with whoever wins the polls slated for December 27 this year.

Kalonzo’s wave will definitely sweep the entire Ukambani region of Eastern Province, parts of Coast and North Rift Valley. In his native Ukambani backyard, immediate Healthy minister Charity Ngilu will be the biggest casualty. She will lose her Kitui Central seat following her decision to back Raila, seen as the man who clipped Kalonzo’s national influence. At one time Kalonzo led the opinion poll result at 37 per cent, Kibaki 27 per cent and Raila at 11 per cent. In Rift Valley, his association with African Inland Church (AIC) has endeared him to the locals. The influential Church whose other prominent member is Moi has strong roots in Rift Valley and Ukambani regions.

In Coast his support will come from the large Kamba community that has been residing in the area since independence. As of now, the Kamba vote is intact. In the scenario, Kibaki is the biggest loser as the community would definitely vote for him en masse was Kalonzo to withdraw from the Presidential race.

He will almost certainly grab the entire Christian vote from the Pentecostals who see him as one of their own. Kalonzo is a “saved” Christian. But this could also be his undoing as Muslims are already in support of Raila who has a soft spot for Islam. In fact word has it that he converted to the religion while in detention. Muslims oppose the Government side (read Kibaki) for its perceived harassment for Kenyans professing Islam on the premise of fighting terrorism.

Kalonzo’s candidature is purely strategic. He has his eyes set on 2012 polls and in the near future he favors a coalition Government with whoever wins this year’s election. He is known to have a soft spot for Uhuru Kenyatta. In a recent interview with Sunday Nation, Kalonzo said “I have found in Uhuru a leader who can be trusted”. At one time the two attempted to build an alliance after they both fell out with Raila and his team. Uhuru withdrew from Orange House after his demand that the movement remains a coalition rather than a party was rejected. In his argument, Uhuru said, Kanu wanted to field its own parliamentary and civic candidates through out the country to avoid “dying” like other post-independence parties. A Kalonzo-Uhuru alliance would obviously give headache to any incumbent. They two command a strong national support. They are young and untainted by corruption. At 54 and Uhuru at 46, the youth would bank on them to grab power that has proved elusive for the last half a century.

Undoing
Kalonzo lacks the financial resources needed to carry out an extensive presidential campaign. He was among the few Kenyans who, despite having served the highly corrupt Moi Government, chose not to enrich themselves with taxpayer’s cash.

His pragmatic approach to politics may not work for him. The Kenyan politics is never issue-based and won’t be, at least in the near future. Local politicians thrive on raw propaganda, voter-bribery, intimidation of opponents, and use of one’s immense financial ability to manipulate the (poor) masses.

His team lacks a leader who can stir up passion in the heart of people to create a cult-like followership. Just like him, his team comprises of very calculative politicians who seem not ready to offend any of their competitors. They don’t want to play “hardball”.

His Christian overtones in his rallies also would shield away Muslims from supporting him. By interpretation, Muslims would see themselves as a minority inside Kalonzo’s ODM-K and thus would rather rally behind Raila’s ODM where one of their own Najib Balala (Mvita MP) is among the party’s top five luminaries, popularly known as the “Pentagon”.

His running mate, Prof. Julia Ojiambo, is weak on the ground. She stands minimal chances of being elected to parliament as she will be facing off with Vice-President Moody Awori. The ODM wave is slowly creeping in her Funyula constituency and this would mean that any ODM candidate would also pose a serious challenge on the ballot.
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