2007 polls: Coalitions, Alliances and Mergers

IT seems like an enlightenment of sorts. The Kenyan politician look as though he has soon ‘discovered’ that he cannot win a General Election and more so the race to State House on his own.

This truth dawned early in 2002, ahead of the famed election that brought to a dramatic end then ruling party Kanu’s 40-years grip on power.

Prior to this, the opposition had on two occasions tried in vain to dislodge Kanu from power in the 1992 and 1997 General Elections, whereby then President Daniel Moi in his characteristic shrewdness applied “divide and rule” strategy to keep the opposition scattered. At the end, he won the elections twice despite the fact that he had by far less votes in comparison to the combined opposition.

However, come 2002 and then leader of the official opposition Mwai Kibaki, the late Vice-President and Saboti MP Michael Kijana Wamalwa and current Health Minister and Kitui Central MP Charity Kaluki Ngilu formed the first coalition – the National Alliance Party of Kenya (NAK).

NAK later merged with a breakaway team from Kanu led by former VP Prof. George Saitoti and then Energy minister and Langata MP Raila Odinga to form a grand alliance – National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) - that eventually romped to State House with a landslide victory and formed the government.

Just as then, the current crop of leaders are confronted by the same “truth” of coalitions, alliances and mergers if at all they intend to remain relevant, at the constituency, regional or national levels.

Parties

However, a bitter reality stands on the path to such grand unions. Kenya like any other African nation is a multi-ethnic community. Political parties are formed along tribal lines with a sole purpose of using one’s community to lay claim to the national cake.

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), for instance, is largely an all-Luo-Nyanza affair. Ford-Kenya draws the bulk of its support from Luhya tribe just as Narc-Kenya is associated with Kibaki’s Kikuyu community. Only two of Ford-People MPs in parliament come from outside Gusii Land, the hometuff of its leader and Roads minister Simeon Nyachae.

Leaders of political parties, on the other hand, are more of tribal chiefs than true democrats or nationalists. During his 24-years (mis) rule Moi enjoyed a cult-like support from his native Kalenjin community where even today Kanu remains the dominant party.

Raila is the de facto leader of the Luo community and those that have dared challenge his dominance have paid the price by losing their political seats and subsequently reclaimed them by singing to the his tune. This was quite evident in 1997 when Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o lost his Kisumu rural seat after he opted to back Ngilu who was running for Presidency on a Social Democratic Party (SDP) ticket while Raila was standing on National Development Party ticket. The same fate befell one-time political high-flier and then Ugenya MP James Orengo decided to defy Raila and run for Presidency on an SDP ticket. Together with Orengo were Dr. Shem Ochuodho and Joe Donde.

In Luhya land, the community is still watching at a distance with a view to decide who between their two sons, former VP Musalia Mudavadi and Local Government minister and Ford-K boss, stands the highest chances of landing the State House job. 

President Mwai Kibaki of Kenya


Kibaki, despite him being the country’s Chief Executive is interpreted by many as the undisputed political leader of the Kikuyu and their kinsmen in the neighboring Mt. Kenya region. Kibaki has earned the notorious tag of allegedly being more ‘tribal’ in his State appointments than his predecessor.

In the Rift Valley Province, the populous Kalenjin community sees former powerful Cabinet minister and Kanu leaders Nicholas Biwott and William Ruto as their preferred bets if at all they stand any chance of getting back to power.

Due to this medieval-kind of arrangement, voters tend to cast their ballots alongside their community leader(s) rather than basing their judgment on one’s development record or manifesto.

A fight against such a certain tribal leader is interpreted as an onslaught against the entire community. In 2002, for instance, Ruto and his entire Kalenjin leadership took to the streets after he was charged with a high-profile corruption case touching on a non-existence piece of land he sold to state-owned Kenya Power and Lighting Company (KPLC).

Coalitions and Alliances

The 2007 election is seen by many analysts as a two-horse race between the Orange Democratic Movement of Kenya (ODM-K) and Narc-K.

Questions, however, arise on whether the two parties will hold up to the General Election.

In ODM-K two camps revolving around Raila and former Foreign minister and Mwingi North MP Kalonzo Musyoka have emerged.

Raila is known to enjoy good rapport with Mudavadi and Ruto and the three have the control of the largest combined tribal bloc within the party.

Kalonzo is closely allied to leader of the official opposition and a 2002 presidential poll loser Uhuru Kenyatta and would eat away into Ruto’s Kalenjin vote due to his closeness to Moi whose political shadow still attracts “reverence” of sorts in his community.

Narc-K, the flamboyant party associated with President Kibaki, is similarly divided. Two distinct camps have lately emerged pitting high-flying Education minister and former VP Prof. George Saitoti against the eloquent Trade and Industry minister Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi.

Saitoti, the Kajiado North MP is said to draw his support from Kibaki’s chief strategists and long-time friends who see the former University of Nairobi (UoN) Mathematics professor as the best replacement of Kibaki come 2012. This school of thought bases its judgment on the premise that Kenyans will indeed give Kibaki the mandate to go for a second term.

Kituyi’s backing comes from the young Turks of Kibaki Government who see him as the candidate who can enable the party demystify the widespread perception that it is an all-Kikuyu party.

Kibaki, though associated with Narc-K and even campaigned for its candidate in the Nakuru Town by-election, may after all not seek re-election on the party’s platform.

Word has been doing the rounds to the effect that the President has even sent emissaries to his estranged partners in Narc, to be precise, Ngilu and Kombo on the possibility of reviving Narc in the original spirit of the party’s vision.

According to Ngilu, Narc’s chairperson, Narc-K is “most welcome” to be part of the coalition. Those advancing this notion allude to the fact that by reviving Narc, Kibaki would stand a better chance of welcoming back his estranged partners like LDP. Its critics in Narc-K, however, argue that Narc is dead and would only be revived if Ngilu relinquished its leadership (to Kibaki).

Yet other political observers say a coalition of Government of National Unity (GNU), comprising of Kanu MPs and Ford-P would be the best bet. Such a coalition is not far from Narc-K which is a grouping of MPs sympathetic to Kibaki administration. GNU, simply put, is Narc-K in a new gown, analysts portend.

Yet another option would be for Kibaki to play the devil’s role, engage “divide and rule” within ODM-K with a view to attract disgruntled voices within the populist movement.

According to Kibaki’s chief campaigners, Kalonzo would be the best catch as he is seen as popular enough to deserve being Kibaki’s running mate and he is less controversial and untainted.

And still, Kibaki could pull a first one by doing the unexpected; endear Raila back to his Government. By executing his last Cabinet reshuffle, Raila would be appointed the VP, comfortably making him the second in command and heir apparent.

Though widely seen as “pipe dream” by many, this is highly possible in a continent where “opportunism and use-and-dump” are trademark traits of any political genius.

Ends…